“Only” 14 points...
Well...good sign as far as a trend, and it can help with some close congressional races there to have the top of the ticket with this amount of an improved standing.
$6 gas and they still support Obozo. Wish CA had a “break into three parts” clause like Texas does.
While I have no dillusions Cali or NY will fall even under the best circumstances, I still stand completely by the prediction I made months ago, and that is Obama WILL NOT GET over 42-43% of the popular vote MAX! And it is every possibly that he may not see 40% and even possibly get a lower percentage of the vote than Hoover did in 1932.
I later futher stated that Obama will not win a single state he did not get 55% of the popular vote in in 2008, with the exception of MN. And will win a few states where he got over 55% (WI for example)
I stand completely by those predictions.
I also predict that tonights VP debate will go one of two ways... Ryan will probably win the debate on merit, but Biden will go for the likeable “grandpa” and probably not much will change, with who won the debate being probably a draw in terms of focus groups. OR Ryan will effectively counter Biden’s “charming” attempts and win the merit side, and the likeability factor but not by a huge margin.. so net outcome will likely not be much change.
OR, if Biden comes out nasty and agressive, Ryan will calmly counter and handle himself, pundits will declare Biden the winner not on any merit, but because he was agressive and attacked and they just want raw meat, but if Biden goes this rout he risks overplaying of the hand to be attack dog given Obama’s flop will probably provide a furhter bounce for the R/R ticket. Being nasty will excite the leftist pundits but will turn off middle america.
Obama will face the same problem in the next 2 debates, his petty nasty side will likely show through since he’s behind the 8 ball and his attempt to recover will likely show how small and petty he is, and further tank him in the polls.
So, end of the night.. at best the Republicans will get a bit more momentum, at worst they will continue with the same momentum they have. I really don’t see a calculous where Biden can put the genie back in the bottle. Ryan isn’t going to dissintegrate.
I don’t know which track the Dems will take tonight, but I suspect, given Obamas horrific performance, and the lefts demands for red meat, that Biden is going to likely play against his strengths and attempt to play attack dog and overplay his hand, rather than play to his strengths which are buffuddled but likeable grandpa. If he does this, pundents will almost certainly fawn over Biden, however this IMHO is not going to help the O/B ticket. It will pander to their hard core base, but will further move the rest of the elctorate against them.
So, worst case, nothing really changes, best case, R’s get another momentum boost.
I am in southern California..and this news is hugh!