Believe it, Obama had flat out lost close to 10% of his base before the debates, and was down with indies, so an oversample by 8 points, post debate easily would be a 44% floor.
Reality is, Obama has never had any chance of getting over 42-43% of the popular vote in Novemeber, AT BEST. And he very likely could beat Hoover for getting even less of the popular vote than he did in 1932!
Yes, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Obama will not see 40% of the popular vote on election day.
Obama had to run a FLAWLESS campaign to hit the 42-43% mark, and his campaign was a joke before the debate, the debate just revealed how much of house of cards it was. His actions since have been laughable... flailing and idiotic.
The more he falls, the more frustrated he’ll get, the more frustrated he gets, the more bitter and angry he’ll act.. the more bitter and angry he acts, the farther he’ll fall.
Obama is in a death spiral. Obviously Politics ebb and flow and Obama will get a perk up with the town hall debate, because he won’t lose it as badly as he did the last one, and the press will play it up as he’s back.. and he ruled even if he just does okay.
We’ll see how the next few weeks go, but I said it from the begining, and I say it now... BEST obama can hope for is 42-43% of the popular vote, and its a very real possibility he won’t even see 40%.
“We’ll see how the next few weeks go, but I said it from the begining, and I say it now... BEST obama can hope for is 42-43% of the popular vote, and its a very real possibility he won’t even see 40%.”
Well, I feel pretty good about where we’re at at this point, but I’m not as optimistic as you are. This would definitely be one of those instances where I would LOVE to be wrong.
Under 40% popular vote in a two man race — that would be a wipeout!! I don’t drink anymore, but that may be one occasion where I could break that rule :)