Look at the chart above. It’s Rasmussen’s OWN chart. It says R +3.4 in September. It does not say D+2.
So, there is something to debate. And the calculations have no reference points or explanations, so I’m inclined to go with the guy who actually has the data set that we don’t have.
“Look at the chart above. It’s Rasmussen’s OWN chart. It says R +3.4 in September. It does not say D+2.”
Again, you’re assuming his party affiliation numbers is how he weights his sample. This is an unwarranted assumption. If Ras publicly admitted using a D+2 when his Party affiliation numbers are different from that, it’s just a brute fact that you need to take into account.
He isn’t using his ‘chart’.
I’ll try one more time. Excuse me if I’m not clear, I’m only a lowly engineer.
1. Rasmussen has Romey winning independents
2. Rasmussen has Romney winning a higher percentage of D’s than Obama is winning R’s.
Show us how it is possible for him to be using more R’s in his turnout model yet have the race tied!
You can’t because he is using more D’s (D+5).
Rasmussen’s internals *are* posted in tatown’s link to my post.
There is no way the split can be R+2 and independents going 16 points for Romney, and the race would still be only at a 2 point advantage. There is a significant D bias.
He is not using the party affliation numbers for his national polling. I don’t know why, but he’s simply not.