I’m late to the game, how do we know Ras is using a D+5 model?
No one has shown an example of Ras using a D+5. My guess is he uses his own numbers until someone shows me otherwise.
He used his own numbers in 2008 and 2010. I don’t know why he’d do differently now. Especially, since his numbers were the most accurate.
He was also the most consistent in 2008. He had Obama up throughout by about 4-6 points. He turned out to be correct.