[Pete]

The numbers are actually pretty easy to believe. If Romney has 43% that will vote for him no matter what and Obama has 42% that will do the same, that leaves 15% "undecided". If they break 2-1 against the incumbent (not an unreasonable assumption - see The Incumbent Rule), that gives Romney a 6% victory.

With regards to the EC, the 100-120 margin is consistent with the modeling by the two Colorado professors who have been right since 1980.

I think the only question is whether it will be bigger than 6% and be a complete landslide. If most of the independents go to Romney (again, see The Incumbent Rule) and the under 34's stay home, we could be talking about a 10 point margin of victory in the popular vote.

[Defiant]

We’re going to need at least 6 points to get rid of Obama. Any less, and the fraud and lawyers kick in. He needs to get his butt kicked so bad that he just goes away.

[Little Ray]

I like that - 6% is too big to steal. I hope it is true.
But until Obama delivers a concession speech, we should fight like we’re five points behind...