Sigh. This is only a “shift” if people haven’t been paying attention to our FR absentee voting analysis. OH, FL, NC never really that much “in play” given the absentee voting numbers, which were turned upside down from 08. But I’m glad Ras and the other pollsters are finally catching up to reality.
Take a look at this, even IA is supposedly ahead of where it was in
2004, if you compare it against the same day back then. I guess the GOP likes to start off slow and catch up. (Note this is some pundit's cite, too lazy to dig up the source data, alas)
"Democrats have a big edge among early voters, but according to Gray their lead is smaller than it was in 2004, when George W. Bush carried Iowa by 0.7 percentage points."
Source