Rasmussen is apparently using D+3. Based on his monthly numbers, the electorate is at R+4. I expect somewhere between R+0 and R+3 for the election. That would put Romney up by 5 to 8 percent. The latest Rasmussen independent count was Romney +16.
I dont know. Usually in presidential years, democraps have a slight advantage. I think a D+2 is probably more realistic.