Depends on the size of the sample of Independents.
Independents were 29% in 2008 and their ranks have grown considerably since then (where do you think the D’s have gone?). Any model that has I’s at less than 30% would be highly suspect.
Furthermore, Romney is getting a bigger % of R’s than Obama is of D’s. Romney is also getting 2 percentage points more of D’s than Obama is of R’s.
All in all, Rasmussen’s numbers seem to suggest something like a D+7.
Using a D+7 model (37D/30R/33I):
Romney 37(0.1)+30(0.89)+33(0.54) ~49
Obama 37(0.88)+30(0.8)+33(0.38) ~48
Assuming the I number is close to being right, I would suggest to me that Ras is in the ballpark of D+6 to D+8.