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An Unspinnable Debate
The Weekly Standard ^ | October 15 Edititon | James W. Ceaser

Posted on 10/06/2012 3:22:19 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

The highly anticipated debate in Denver was the rarest of all things in American politics: an unspinnable event. Almost all who watched the contest concluded that there was one president on the stage, and it was Mitt Romney. Obama sympathizers took the measure of the situation and decided that the best thing to do was to hoist the white flag and get out of Dodge. Chris Matthews asked, “Where was Obama tonight?” James Carville observed that it “looked like .  .  . President Obama didn’t want to be there.” A few half-hearted attempts to deflect the result by arguing that Mitt Romney had bullied Jim Lehrer collapsed under the revelation that Barack Obama had held onto the microphone for four minutes longer than his opponent.

Yet before the milk bottles are opened at Romney headquarters in Boston, his advisers will have to consider whether a victory in a debate by itself can change the trend of a presidential campaign. After all, President Obama committed no decisive blunder, nor was there anything like the perfect “gotcha” moment to replay time and again for the next month. Experience has shown that a defeat for an incumbent in an early debate, like the one George Bush experienced at the hands of John Kerry in 2004, can turn out to be just one of those “bumps in the road.” The only way for the Romney camp to transform this impressive win on debate points into a political advantage is to find the compelling themes that can be integrated into a fuller campaign strategy.

Romney’s greatest success in Denver came from his threading of two needles.

First, he projected himself as a leader who was at the same time bolder yet warmer, stronger yet more human, than most had viewed him until now. Romney was on the offensive throughout—he was more “aggressive” than Obama (Tom Bevan said he “manhandled” the president), but he also -managed to make himself appear more likable, charming, and compassionate.

Romney discovered a formula that had eluded him throughout the past year, and it is a remarkable feat of alchemy. Up until this point, the two qualities of political strength and personal warmth were, perhaps reasonably, thought to be opposites. One of them could be pursued only at the expense of the other: hence the decision at the Republican convention to give an acceptance speech that avoided strong policy statements in an effort to reveal to America the personal Mitt, hitherto buried somewhere deep inside a stiff public persona. The personal anecdote of his father giving his mother a rose every day was touching, but was it a pathway to the presidency?

There is no doubt that Mitt Romney has suffered from a failure to display warmth and empathy. The poll results on this point are striking. On the question who seems more likable and friendly, Barack Obama—hardly the cuddly and fuzzy type himself—bests Mitt Romney better than two to one (61 percent to 27 percent) and is deemed far more in touch with the problems of the middle class -(57 percent to 37 percent). Political analyst Bill Schneider has argued that these qualities are decisive: “The only way that the president can get reelected in this difficult economic environment is by exploiting his personal appeal.”

Romney used the debate to show that his deficiency in “connecting”—his lack of a political gene—can best be overcome by pressing his political case. His concern for the middle class and the unemployed, as he explained, is demonstrated not just in his profession of caring, but also in his policy of resisting a tax increase and lowering tax rates. It was the argument for these positions, advanced with passion and conviction, that helped make the case for Romney’s warmth and showed his sincerity. Mitt Romney in public is always going to be primarily a public person; for him, this is the best way to sell his private side.

The second needle Romney managed to thread in Denver was even more unexpected. Romney was able to appear at one and the same time more conservative and more postpartisan than he has till now.

For weeks within the Republican party, the Romney campaign has been criticized for adopting a strategy of “referendum” over “choice.” “Referendum” refers to the theory that this election will be won by voters deciding that they do not want to reelect Barack Obama. The challenger’s job is to make himself acceptable, a credible alternative, so that voters dissatisfied with the president can easily choose a safe option. “Choice” refers to the theory that the public also needs compelling reasons to vote for the challenger.

Referendum is naturally associated with lying low and trying to target independents piecemeal (women in particular). From this point of view, articulating big, bold plans at this stage represents nothing more than intellectual chest-thumping that is disconnected from politics on the ground. The independents want a more conciliatory candidate who can work with the other side. The choice school contends that it is only by laying out a big, bold alternative program that a challenger can persuade and motivate voters, including the independents and undecideds who hold the balance.

Romney found the sweet spot here. He did make big appeals in the debate, moving far more to the choice position than he had in recent weeks. Yet when the opportunity was presented to embrace the logic of the referendum position, he took it too.

The plain fact is that many of the voters who are undecided at this point are the very ones who are sick of deadlock and partisan conflict. Partisans and “big idea” people may think what they will, but this feeling in the electorate was a significant reason for Obama’s appeal in 2008. Romney captured the postpartisan mantle from Obama at the point where the president brought out what he thought was his trump card, commending Mitt Romney for initiating Romneycare. Romney took the compliment, insisted on some of the differences with Obama-care, and then showed how he had passed his program in Massachusetts working with a legislature that was 87 percent Democratic. The Frank Luntz focus group of independents found this to be one of the most appealing moments in the debate. Romney’s supposed Achilles’ heel, after his political ACL surgery, has turned into one of his greatest strengths.

These two themes—a leader whose empathy comes from strength and conviction and a person whose bold plans are not in tension with a temperament conducive to bipartisanship—are the “takeaways” from last week that can put Mitt Romney on the path to victory.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election2012; emptychairobama; miapresident; october3debate

1 posted on 10/06/2012 3:22:23 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: All

“....for months, the Obama campaign has relentlessly portrayed Romney as an inveterate scoundrel: a dissolute shylock — maybe even a felonious one — who fleeced mom-and-pop stores, secreted his ill-gotten gains in offshore vaults, and, in his spare time, tortured his own pooch. “Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, polarize it” — it’s the Alinskyites following their dog-eared rule book.

The problem for our community organizer–in–chief is the debate setting. With no slavish Obamedia filter between the candidates and the viewers, the Obama campaign’s ludicrous distortion of Romney collided, one on one and for all to see, with the reality of Romney. The challenger’s upbeat energy simultaneously effused respect for the president’s office and sheer joie de vivre at the prospect of laying bare the president’s miserable record — of forcing Obama’s vision of Euro-America to compete with Romney’s traditionally confident, self-determining America......

....It was a Romney who has appeared in flashes over the years, but then frustratingly veered away. Suddenly, he seemed comfortable and commanding — like he’d finally arrived at where he wanted to be, like he planned to be staying for a while. When his moment came, the biggest in his political life, the guy who “couldn’t connect” knew he was connecting like there was no tomorrow. And maybe there isn’t. He was the very picture of the happy warrior — somewhere, at least for this night, Ronald Reagan and Bill Buckley were smiling........”

http://www.nationalreview.com/blogs/print/329590


2 posted on 10/06/2012 3:42:54 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I am really enjoying the coverage of the debate.....


3 posted on 10/06/2012 3:57:56 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: ConservativeDude

Me too. Like a sponge.


4 posted on 10/06/2012 4:00:02 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Obama is a MEAN, ARROGANT PUNK.....but he flashes that shiite eating grin the sheeple’s hearts melt. I don’t get it......he’s a BULLY PUNK LYING RABBLE ROUSER!


5 posted on 10/06/2012 4:05:55 AM PDT by Ann Archy ( ABORTION...the HUMAN Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Almost all who watched the contest concluded that there was one president on the stage, and it was Mitt Romney.

There are two new themes by the demonRATS, Romney is a liar, and wait till we get him in the "townhouse" format.

obama, kept saying $5 trillion dollar tax cut is calling Romney a liar.

obama, whose unemployment rate is magically 7.8% {we knew they'd do it} has the gall to call anyone a liar.

Best umbrage of the day was from the bimbo that heads up the B_S department when she said that she was offended that anyone would say that her group was capable of "cooking the books".

Oh no, she was offended.

6 posted on 10/06/2012 4:11:11 AM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages, start today.)
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To: ConservativeDude

You know anything close and they would say Obama win. election over. Took 3-4 days to come up with the Romney lied spin. Too late.

Biden will lay a larger, funnier egg.

Town hall format will be stacked with plants.


7 posted on 10/06/2012 4:25:21 AM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Facts are stubborn things.

Obama is being shown for the liar, rather than Romney.

I remember this hilarious line from the show that had Gary Coleman as Arnold Drummond the cutest of cute kids. Mr Drummonds sister was a ditz type of character...big hearted but not quite all there and known for blurting out funny lines. The issue was about someone telling a lie and then lying about that. She blurts out that it isn’t really a lie when you lie about the truth (like a white lie to spare someone’s feelings), but when you lie about lying, now that’s lying.

The other characters just stared at her in disbelief as they tried to fathom what she meant.

O and his drones are now lying about lying, and that’s really lying.


8 posted on 10/06/2012 4:58:14 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: txrangerette
O and his drones are now lying about lying, and that’s really lying.

Priceless comment!

The Obamanoids are trying to paint Romney as the liar -- to deflect (as they always do) from the fact that it is THEY who are the liars.

9 posted on 10/06/2012 5:01:34 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

And this weekend, with the fake unemployement numbers at his side, O will continue, as he did the second the fake numbers arrived, to tout that this is PROOF his POLICIES are working. Which is doubling down not only on lying, but on stupid. Because even as he lied, the lying numbers were being exposed. This only works when done to crowds of Obama drones, many of them being paid, one way or another, for supporting Obama and turning out for his events.

I will bet Romney and friends cannot wait to take O’s latest lies, on these numbers, and shove them in his face...nicely of course, with a smile...at the next debate.

I also see this opening, so wide a fleet of mac trucks could drive through, to ask the question: WHAT policies of yours are you talking about that are “working” to reduce unemployment. First of all it isn’t reduced, but you claim it is, so what are those policies. The stimulus? Over and done and failed. Then go on to show that his policies have totally hamstrung the economy. Like oil drilling moratoriums and obamacare and dodd-frank and on and on and on...

On another thread, the heading is Romney’s statement that “This isn’t what a recovery looks like”. That’s a good start - it’s a bone waiting for the meat to be put on.


10 posted on 10/06/2012 5:16:27 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: txrangerette

It’s like a quicksand of lies they are trying to navigate.


11 posted on 10/06/2012 5:19:41 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Mired in a quicksand of lies...

Sinking deeper...

Great imagery.


12 posted on 10/06/2012 5:29:27 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: txrangerette

13 posted on 10/06/2012 5:38:08 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
I can't equal that, but...

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14 posted on 10/06/2012 7:48:17 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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