I’ll just give you one county as an eg. Cuyahoga. Outvoted by 260,000 in 08. 460,000 to 200,000. Currently at about a 57,000 spread in ballot requests (Dems have requested 98,807 ballots, repubs 42,232 ballots) thus far. The spread was 85,000 in 2008 just for absentee ballots. If this ratio is repeated across counties in OH, then you can add up the numbers and kinda figure where we might end up. For Cuyahoga, I think the final difference between Obama and Romney will be in the 150,000 range (based on my turnout assumptions, indies splitting, all dems obama and all repubs romney) whereas it was 260,000 in 08. If that is 110,000 less vote margin for Obama from Cuyahoga, then rest of the state should be able to make that up. Margin for McCain and Obama was about 260,000 overall for the whole state. It would only take 75,000 voters to change their minds and we see that happening on the spreadsheet every day.
Thanks so much. Deeply appreciate it. So Dem turnout so far appears to be down from four years ago in their urban strongholds.
I am from Cleveland originally. The Dems usually pile up a huge a margin in Cuyahoga and some of the surrounding counties including Lorain and Summit. GOP has to make up for this with a huge turnout downstate and in the rural areas. Columbus used to be Republican, now Democrat in most elections.