Obama, Romney Tied Among Likely Voters (47/47, National Journal poll)

National Journal ^ | 10/02/12 | Shane Goldmacher

[TonyInOhio]

President Obama and Mitt Romney are deadlocked among likely voters as they prepare to square off in their first presidential debate, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll.

The survey showed that voters remain resistant to either Obama or Romney holding full control of the federal government.

Obama and Romney each pulled in 47 percent support in the poll among likely voters. It is among the narrowest margins of several presidential surveys published ahead of the debate this week. Other polls have shown the president with a slim lead. In this survey, while the race is tied among likely voters, Obama has a 5-point lead, 49 percent to 44 percent, among registered voters.

~ snip ~

Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the nonwhite vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.

In estimating the turnout on Nov. 6, the poll projects an electorate that is 74 percent white, 11 percent African-American, and 8 percent Latino. The likely-voter party splits are 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent independent.

The estimates are similar to the 2008 turnout, when, according to CNN exit polling, 74 percent of voters were white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino, with Democratic turnout at 39 percent, Republicans at 32 percent, and independents at 29 percent.

[TonyInOhio]

Very good numbers here - a tied race among Likely Voters, using the 2008 turnout model, means Romney probably is actually up 2-3 points. If Romney wins independent voters and is only a few points down among women, I think he wins.

[Strategerist]

Remarkably Obama was +7 in this poll two weeks ago.

[TonyInOhio]

Poll ping. This one looks like signifcant movement towards Romney, and was done within the last week. The trend is our friend!

[Sarah Barracuda]

Now everyone has to watch this Obama racist video tonight and Romney has to kick some major ass tomorrow night and this election is in the bag

[SamAdams76]

A D+7 turnout projected? I'm not buying it. We had a D+8 turnout in 2008 and what I believe was a R+1 turnout in 2010.

I'm thinking 2012 is somewhere in between. D+3 turnout at best.

[arrogantsob]

Only 29% Republicans. Had to rig it by +7 D’s to get a tie.

[Parley Baer]

“The trend is our friend!”

Yes it is. Let’s hope the trend continues until November 6.

[SeekAndFind]

47 + 47 = 94%. What are the other 6% doing anyway?

Still undecided?

Dick Morris says that in his observation...

But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent.

In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.

An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.

I’m not sure if Dick Morris’ analysis stands up to scrutiny.