You’ve both got it right. Romney’s commercials are as tepid as he is. Who even cares if he runs more of them?
This is the problem with running a campaign where all your consultants are from DC or MA—blue territory through and through.
I repeat it one more time:
If you go with RAS figures for leaners and assume DEM +3 eg : GOP 33 DEM 36 IND 31 you get:
Romney 47%, Obama 47.5%
To get Romney 45% and Obama 50% given the figures for party affiliation and voting intentions for leaners you get a sample like the following:
GOP 29%, DEM 38%, IND 34%
You tell me how likely that is?!
You will see more contrast ads in the coming weeks. The softer ads are meant to change minds of the ‘08 Obama voter.
The final onslaught will be hard hitting contrast ads. Believe me. I am friends with a Romney guy (not an insider but someone who has been associated with his aides since his 94 run). He promises me that the ads will get much tougher. Believe me. I email him nightly complaining about the vanilla ads. Partisans want blood. Apolitical types don’t. Just the way it works.