I agree with you about NoVA. I have not seen anywhere near the number of Obama bumper stickers or yard signs. Either people are embarrassed about supporting Obama or they are voting a different way. It is almost eerie this close to election day.
I can't escape the notion that a meaningful slice of voters are telling pollsters they support Obama...while harboring their own private doubts. Nobody wants to appear "racist", y'know. These voters are probably spread throughout the demographic spectrum (including blacks).
What they might do in the privacy of the voting booth -- when a decision is finally forced upon them -- will be the opposite of their polling response in many cases.
I am from a County in MI that voted for Clinton in 96, Bush in 00 and 04 and obama in 08. Talking to the Democratic HQ last week they said in 08 they sent out over 1300 yard signs this year so far they have had requests for 80!