You can tell a lie by the way it’s dressed up.
If Romney’s behind, just make the claim and end it there.
If you really believe what you’re saying, you won’t have to provide extra reasons, like “Romney’s a bad candidate” or “Romney messed up with the 47% comment” or the old “experts like Rasmussen say...”
And as for absentee ballots—the analysis involves comparing patterns.
If this election shows a significant difference in the pattern from 2008, you can extrapolate real information from it. What we see is democrats are showing a pattern of not voting this election.
You don’t need science for this, it’s common sense.