Either the polls, including Ras, are way off, or there are a lot of Republicans voting for Obama and telling pollsters they are voting for Obama. What was Ras’ last set of numbers for Ohio?
Which seems more likely?
Polls are off. Less than 10 percent of voters are answering them anyways. Go by ballots, registration, and where canidates are running ads. Look at their schedules.
Romneys in PA for a reason.
http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/
Only 9% answering poll questions in 2012, according to PEW
Yes, Ras is off too. His baseline of about 2.5% to 4% Ds over Rs is incorrect, but less incorrect than the rest of them.