AS I have posted before, the real polls, that is the ones that are highly accurate, are something you will not see. At least not for many years.
I trained as a pollster in college, worked as one afterwords.
The polls you see in the media are all about either rallying the faithful or demoralizing the opposition or selling eyeballs.
The actual polls, that is the ones where the outcome actually resembles reality as closely as (lots of ) money and (woefully limited and stressed out) time permit. These polls are the ones the campaigns (or their ancillary staffs, usually funded by PACs) use to determine where to buy ads or otherwise apply resources. As Willard pointed out it’s the small percent in the middle that “matter” (in terms of where you spend money, and that, my friend is the only thing that matters in a campaign). You, me. Jim Rob, Anderson Cooper, John Sterwart, Rush... no one sees those ‘real’ polls except a very very small group around the candidate, they are crucial info. If you have $400K in a tri-county area, NOW do you spend it? That is what the $$$ and the genuine expertise are chasing right now. News organizations and the campaighns release “polls” all the time, but it’s all about psych ops and selling papers/website hits, the numbers are all about what will generate excitement (or despair).
My old buds are making the mortgage, college and boat payments for the next few years over the course of the next few weeks. And they care far more about being right than who wins.
This fact makes a mockery of the claim their methodology is based on science.
My old buds are making the mortgage, college and boat payments for the next few years over the course of the next few weeks.
And what are your old buds saying about this election...?