The magic is gone. There’s no way in hell the demholes have the same enthusiasm and turnout they had in ‘08. In their wildest dreams the demholes know it wont be a 2008-like turnout for their side. Conversely, everything that produced the Tea Party / conservative / republican enthusiasim & turnout in 2010 is still there, with a foreign policy cluster-f*#% to boot. I’ve seen some opinions that a reliable poll would need to split the turnout model difference 1/2 way between 2004 and 2008. I’d argue that half way between ‘08 and 2010 would be a better way to go.
Absolutely correct.
Chicago voter registration down compared with 2008, election officials say
When Chicago registration is down from '08, that means it's Democrat registration that is down. When it's down in that bastion of Democrat voters, it strongly suggests a national trend.
I’d argue that half way between ‘08 and 2010 would be a better way to go
It makes sense, and is probably similar to the Rasmussen model.