“The elections are won on turnout ~ not by converting the other side to vote for your guy.”
Does that work in states like Vermont, California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts? Or even Utah or Oklahoma?
If not, why not?
The last Presidential race in 2008 had 69 million Democrats show up and 59 million Republicans. There are at least 35,000,000 Republicans in that mass of 90,000,000 nonvoting adults.
You get to them with intense campaigning early to get registered, and then to practice their vote in a party primary or caucus.
Guess we missed that train ~ better luck next time.
In 2008 the Democrats reported they'd nearly exhausted the number of nonregistered Democrats and this time they wouldn't actually have any jump in the number of registered Democrats since they're already registered.
Casual little statement eh! They're prepared for the election and know they can lose millions and millions of no shows and still win.
The Republicans have an achilles heel though. We have about 17 million Evangelicals (according to Ralph Reed) who are picky when it comes to voting. George H.W. Bush lied to them so they didn't show up and he lost. They don't vote for Obama. Numbers of them won't vote for Romney. At the moment nobody knows what they'll do this election but the Republicans made no effort to supplement their numbers with a massive voter registration campaign and adroit use of the primaries to hook the new voters ~ quite the contrary. Feb-May were wasted.
Kvetching about the polls is no substitute for pre-preparation for the election. You have to find a good candidate people will like and respect. You register as many new Republican voters as you can. You don't ever PO the Evangelical voters either. Then you go out; do your best in getting folks to the polls; and voila, Ronald Reagan wins ~ and even George W. Bush can win.
Because of the mistakes we have entirely too many who think the only message we have in this campaign is Anybody But Obamugabe ~ which is just so wrong. It doesn't have to be this way.