I'm inclined to believe that the margin in real life probably isn't as big as this poll would suggest; however, for her to be up over Matheson at all is amazing, considering just how entrenched the Matheson name is among the Utah elite. And with all the momentum in Mia's favor, I would think that only a major gaffe would turn it back in Matheson's direction.
There's apparently a debate between the two of them going on tonight (maybe already done?). I'm not as close to things as I used to be - moved to NV in June.