Posted on 09/25/2012 11:37:54 AM PDT by My Favorite Headache
-PPP's newest Florida Senate poll finds Bill Nelson continuing to expand his lead. He's at 46% to 37% for Connie Mack IV. Three weeks ago Nelson led by 7 points and in early July he had been ahead by only 2.
Nelson's still not popular. Only 34% of voters approve of him to 41% who disapprove. But he lucked out with an extremely weak opponent. Only 30% of voters have a favorable opinion of Mack to 44% with a negative one. Mack's numbers are a particularly dreadful 22/53 spread with independents, and he trails Nelson by 22 points with them at 48-26.
The most striking finding in the poll is that Nelson leads Mack 44-41 with white voters. If a Democrat can win white voters in Florida they're headed for a blowout victory overall, and increasingly that appears to be the case in this race
-Mitt Romney didn't get much of a bounce out of the Republican convention in Florida, but Marco Rubio sure has. His approval breakdown this month is 52/32, the best we've found for him since he took office. He's on solid 50/33 ground with independents and has a higher than normal 26% of Democrats who approve of him. Rubio's approval numbers were pretty middling for the last year and a half but he's seen a noticeable improvement since the convention.
-38% of Florida voters approve of Rick Scott this month to 48% who disapprove. His numbers, although still bad, continue to be better than they've been for most of his term. Scott trails a generic Democratic opponent for reelection by a 48/42 margin.
One specific person who seems like he could be the Democratic candidate for Governor in 2014 is Charlie Crist. He leads Scott 48-43 in a hypothetical contest. Crist is not an overwhelmingly popular figure in Florida anymore though. 39% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 43% with a negative one. His numbers with Democrats (up from 44/33 to 55/22) and Republicans (down from 24/60 to 19/69) have headed in opposite directions in the three weeks since he appeared at the Democratic convention. 48% of voters think he should complete the switch and become a Democrat to 21% who think he should not and that sentiment is held among Democrats (61/11) and Republicans (40/33) alike.
-And finally Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot in Florida 47-43.
Keep three facts in mind:
Those people in Florida who actually read above 4th grade level
and vote have figured out that "Mack,"
despite 100 years of baseball-fan name recognition*, is a drooling, Biden-like, RINO fool. When one sees him in person, a rational reaction would be to order up a breathalyzer. It is OK for a Democrat to be an ass-klown like Biden. But a Republican will get called on it by the media.
Of course, Nelson is a drooling left wing Obama-butt-kissing fool. Tough election! But Floridians are afraid that Mack will screw up their food stamps.
BTW, in re this "name-recognition," how many Amricans are actually left who remember who the heck "Connie Mack" actually was. Too bad, because that's all Connie Mack has going for him.
fyi, in cash on hand
Nelson has 10 million and Mack has 1 million.
Nelson has 10 million in cash on hand and Mack has 1 million.
1 million is not very much in FL and I suspect Mack is hording it for a last 2 week push.
I have seen some anti-Nelson ads from a PAC, but I've seen nothing from Mack's campaign. This seat should have been an easy pick-up, but now it's in doubt. Even if mack wins, we have something of a loose cannon on our hands.
As to Florida voters, well, they do leave a lot to be desired. Nelson panders to upstate rurals by talking like they do, but then he votes to please the downstate liberals. So far, it's worked.
You are reading polls with a +9 Democrat oversample.
I don’t know why Scott is so unpopular other than having to deal with a hostile press.
But as far as Mack goes...well, it looks like Republican primary voters there pulled a Sharon Angle and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
I mean, surely there was someone better to choose from in the primary, right?
Is the GOP pumping in money to help?
Wow, 17% undecided? wierd.
I guess we can only hope it's rope-a-dope. Maybe he's trying to let Obama drain his cash early and he's going to blanket the airwaves and outspend him in the final week or two.
Obama is NOT going to let money be an issue. He’ll funnel money from wherever he needs to. He won’t run out of cash. Not to mention, he knows all he has to do is deny Romney Florida and the election’s over. Don’t expect a letup before the election. There is no grand plan for Romney. He’s being beaten to hell here in Central Florida and if thinks 2 weeks of ads will undo 2 months of negatives, he’s wrong.
After 30% of Floridians have already voted? Suicidal.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.