And Ras has been skewing his polls with a D+3 or D+4 by using party turn out that is something between the 04 and the 08 elections.
something between the 04 and the 08 elections.”
Obviously that is where the art of this comes in. But...that strikes me as spot on. The incumbent is after all a D. So you can expect D’s to come out in sort of the same fashion as the R’s did in 2004. But obviously 2008 was especially good for the D’s and they have nowhere to go but down. And 2010 was especially good for the R’s, because intensity was high and it was an “off year” for the D’s.
But the D’s will raise their vote from 2010 b/c it is a presidential year, while the GOP will stay about the same (or go up slightly...but the GOP vote won’t go up much over 2010).
Which is to say, it seems that a turnout model somewhere between 2004 and 2008 is probably about right.
Personally I believe that Romney has a good shot. But I don’t, ahem, “feel” like he has won. Yet.
Not yet.
But I feel like a tsunami is forming.