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We know the splits in most counties but are missing two key counties, Warren (deep red) and Montgomery (slightly blue). We know 25,000 absentees are out in Montgomery, but won't know the party registrations until sometime next week.

So far, Cayahoga has about 100,000 out (heavy Dem, perhaps 3:1 county) and the splits were about 54,000D, 24,000R, and 22,000I. I don't know what 08 final splits were, but this is certainly not better for Dems than 08, and perhaps worse. If you include Is going Romney's way, especially at 10%, this is ok.

Franklin (Columbus) shows a surprising 4,000 R lead so far.

Hamilton (most, but not all of red Cincy) has a 5,500 R lead, and Starke (30,000 Dem registration advantage) has a 700 R lead. If Warren and Hamilton exceed Cuyahoga, we're good. If Franklin and Montgomery offset, we're good. If we come out of Franklin and Montgomery with a lead (assuming a Cuyahoga/Warren-Ham break even) then I think OH is safe.

Long way to go, and a lot of ifs.

Some updated info on Ohio.

Cuyahoga County: 120,134 absentee ballots requested.

Democrats - 65,093
GOP - 29,512.

A 35,581 D advantage, but due to a 3-1 party advantage in the county, Democrat turnout is 18.8% while GOP turnout is 23.4%

Hamilton County - GOP has increased their margin to 7,912, almost a 2-1 advantage over the Demcorats.

In Franklin County, GOP have increased their margin in requests to 5,319.