Just like with McCain though it will come down to a few states and which way those states go. Really percentages of possible overall turnout and voting do not give the clear picture. If Mitt cannot take the needed battleground States he could possibly be 3 points ahead and still loose.
Mel
The electoral college projections at RCP are still a bit troubling to me. I’d like to see more points in Mitt’s column right now.
Such experienced pols/pundits as Newt Gingrich have been saying that the idea of a few states controlling, apart from the whole electoral college and popular vote, is bunk.
Newt pointed out that states don’t go wildly opposite the rest of the states, or opposite the popular vote, but fit in within a historical trend and with other facts of the vote.
He’s not talking about polls well before the election but the actual vote.
He also does not believe in aiming a campaign at each of several individual “swing” states as if that would pull the country along. Instead, he says the country as a whole and the swing states will tend to perform collectively and individually “in sync”, therefore run a national campaign WELL, and the necessary states will come to you ON ELECTION DAY.
McCain ran an awful campaign, and he was up against a candidate that mesmerized the country with youth, teleprompter speaking ability, the first Black potiential president, etc. Yes McCain won certain reliable Republican states anyway, because the nation IS divided along somewhat reliable lines.
But the reason he saw Indiana, NC, VA, FL, OH etc slip away ISN’T THAT HE FAILED IN THOSE STATES BUT THAT HE FAILED NATIONALLY.