Incumbent under 50%...winner will be Smith.
That’s the way I see it too.
Not with that spread. Proponents of that theory like Morris say the undecided breaks 75-80% for the challenger. That leaves enough to put Casey over the top.
Casey has not only the magic last name, but the magic first name. His dad Bob Casey was a beloved governor, as beloved here as Ronald Reagan was or as the Kennedys are in Mass. It'll be easier for Romney to win PA than it will be for Casey to lose.
This is the kind of Senate seat you'll pick up only in a national landslide 40+ state sweep for Romney. Even in 2010's Tea Party sweep, Toomey only won by 2 points, and he wasn't running against a golden boy favorite son like Casey.