All polling is an educated guess.
Most pollsters look at the last Presidential election year. So what they try to do is form a polling sample they think accurately reflects the current voting population. The mistake most of the pollsters are making is they are basing their samples on the 2008 Presidential election. That was an abnormally good year for Dems.
So you are seeing polling in states that oversampled Democrats by 4-11 points over current party registration numbers. It is absurd.
Well it is absurd unless you agree with the pollsters that Obama will turn out more voters in 2012 then he did in 2008?
Thanks. I was surprised that about the Michigan gap, given that Rasmussen generally seems more realistic in its polling results. But I am new at this.
I’m tossing out a question to everyone here. Who cares what polling predicts? They only get a 9% response rate. In what other area would anyone give a single thought to a survey with a 9% response rate? It’s ridiculous to give this nonsense any credence.