www.unskewedpolls.com has Romney up 7.8%
Here’s the assumption the site you mentioned : www.unskewedpolls.com makes:
The QStarNews poll works with the premise that the partisan makeup of the electorate 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.1 percent independent voters. Additionally, our model is based on the electoral including approximately 41.6 percent self-described conservatives, 32.6 percent self-described moderates and 25.8 percent self-described liberals.
SO, THEY WORK WITH THE ASSUMPTIONS THAT THERE ARE 4.3% MORE REPUBLICANS WHO WILL VOTE THAN DEMOCRATS, WHILE MOST OTHER POLLS ASSUME THE OPPOSITE.
The all important question then is this -— WHOSE ASSUMPTIONS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY?
We might WISH that www.unskewedpolls.com is correct, but wishing does not necessarily make it so.
What GOOD REASONS are there to believe that www.unskewedpolls.com weighing assumptions are correct?
You can’t just completely unskew the polls and believe they are accurate. I believe Romney has a 1-point lead or is even with Obama right now with at most a 1-point lead for Obama possibly. But, it is insane to think Romney is ahead by 7. You can’t unskew the polls and assume that is accurate to the people who took the poll.
They are basically assuming Ras party ID will be correct for TURNOUT purposes, which would be a historic number of GOP voters not seen in over 100 years. That’s not logical. I am inclined to believe the Gallup results with a +1 GOP is more accurate. I think Romney wins and the polls are skewed Dem, but you can’t completely unskew them. It’s somewhere in the middle of the Romney up 7 and Obama up 7.