Dick Morris went into the problem with the 2008 voter model in detail a few days ago in a piece Drudge linked to.
He said that the internal pollers - the ones the parties use - they will produce results on both the 2004 and 2008 models because everyone is well aware of the differences between 2008 and now, for example, higher GOP affiliation. He claimed using the 2008 model could skew results by I think it was 10 points or so.
He also said now (last 45 days) the polling companies will start to get more realistic as obviously they don’t want to be embarrassed by being way off come election day.
I wouldn’t say that ‘could still win’ is painting a very rosy picture. Of course he ‘could still win’.
In a climate like this Dems should be saying that ‘Obama could still win’.
Thanks for the ping. I really liked the last part of the analysis.
The mechanics of the campaign matter, but the vast distance between the Obama America was promised and the President we got still spell defeat for the Democratic ticket this November.
Mitt Romney may not be the perfect candidate, but he doesn’t have to be. The fundamentals of this election, outside the media bubble, are on his side for a victory in November.