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Au contraire. You'll see that I totally agree with the PA Ras poll that shows Romney behind. I think he is behind in PA, and that it's a waste of time (but not as far behind as Ras has him). I am a little distressed about the last Ras WI and IA polls.

So, at the same time, I'm encouraged by all the polling from FL and CO and NJ and NH (Romney up there 3, tied in FL and CO using a +3 Dem turnout, which may or may not be accurate---but it certainly won't be higher).

But surely you aren't buying national polls from ANYONE that have a D+13 or D+10 model? That's above even 2008? Is there ANYONE who thinks the Dem turnout this year will be higher than in 08? If so, I have a bridge to sell them.