Now, a couple of pieces of REAL evidence (not polls):
Here in Dayton, OH the organization for Romney is light years ahead of McCain and apparently a little ahead of Rove's 04 organization. We have EXTENSIVE records and read outs of every voter, and ALL Republicans and indies and party switchers between 08 and now are both called personally--- no robot ally's and walked with a sate drop. The county chairman who has been calling indies since May said his responses are overwhelming in this group for Romney.
But just as an example of how the organization works, one precinct captain told me that when a person requests an absentee/early ballot, they are "walked" the day after they receive the ballot!
Little piece of evidence #2: look at the OH SecState website for absentee ballot requests. In Franklin Co. (Columbus ) Rs lead by 4000 and in Hamilton northwest of Cincy Rs lead by 5500 and in Dark Co, which has a 30,000 Dem advantage, Rs LEAD by 700.
Anecdotal, yes. Micro evidence? Yes. But unlike polling, this is real evidence. In NC, Rs lead big in early voting. Unfortunately, in IA, Dems lead big (the good news there is that the state has a GOP trend and advantage last I looked.)
I cannot take seriously any poll based on a 2008 turnout model. I'm around college kids every day and can tell you with every bit of certainty I have that they will not turn out for Obama in ANY semblance to 2008. My guess is that between votes for R/R and non-votes, their numbers alone will be half this time alone. Blacks will vote in the same PERCENTAGES but not the same NUMBERS. I estimate total black vote will be down 5-7% nationally this year. None of this is "wishful thinking" or "fantasy" but realistic assumptions based on the evidence of 2009, 2010, and 2011.
And, finally, to see the depths of disgust with Dems, just look at OH in 2010 where cities such as Toledo (or Akron, I forget) and Dayton---two dem-dominated cities with heavy black populations---threw out black Dem mayos and put in white Republicans. And if you look at SB 5---our version of Wisconsin's anti-union bill---it FAILED in 2011 even though these same voters put in more Republicans and voted against Obamacare 2:1. That tells me that while Dems and indies wanted to keep "teachers and police" they STILL split their votes and supported Republicans everywhere else.
And of course there is your own town, which gave Mad Hatter McLin the boot in favor of independent Leitzell.
Yes, Rush is always right just like he was 4 years ago, and 2006, and..
Talk radio giant Rush Limbaugh says that Sen. John McCain will score a stunning upset over Sen. Barack Obama and win the presidency on Nov. 4. “”
[Rush] Limbaugh Predicts McCain Victory NewsMax ^ | October 31, 2008 | David A. Patten
I scanned through the Sunday shows and for those Romney spokesmen/women being interviewed it was brutal for them. They had to listen to Romney's comments to his rich donors replayed and try to explain them, and they couldnt. No one can. He only meant them for that audience.
1. Obama’s spent millions on his ground game. This is not new for him, so its not too late. The question is, is their ground game paying off?
2. Its obvious there is a different level of enthusiasm in 2012 vs 2008. It boggles my mind that anyone is even daring to vote Obama, but the kooldaid drinkers are out there.
3. glad to hear your organization in OH is doing better than prior cycles. There is a lot of anecdotal evidence aligning with what you are saying, but OTOH ‘the other side gets a vote’ and they are not sitting still.
Thank you for all that great information!
Bump!