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A bit of a lesson in polling.

The talk you hear of oversampling Ds or Rs or Is to some extent doesn’t mean anything, and to another extent means everything. There are three flavors of turnout model.

1) The turnout mix of the last presidential election.

2) A new measurement of party affiliation done periodically and recently.

3) A semi random sample (non random only to the extent of being sure 80 of 100 telephone prefixes are not the same and providing a corrupted, accidentally non random mix) is taken. The respondents self identify party and that is what is reported.

The vast, vast majority of the polls showing big Obama leads are using (forcing) a partisan mix that fits 2008, which was 6 weeks after Lehman and very likely an aberration. If you used 2010’s partisan mix, you’d see a huge Romney lead.

As best I know, Gallup uses flavor 3. Totally random, respondents self identify and the sample’s partisan mix is reported as what the random measure got.

Not sure, someone will correct, but I think Rasmussen does a recent partisan mix measure of the population.

Regardless, no matter who you are as a pollster, no matter how honest and pure your measurement, if you use 2008’s turnout as the turnout model for your poll, you’re going to show an Obama lead.

Your point about 2008 and Lehman is excellent. We are in Lehman x10 in 2012. Europe is going into depression. Bernanke sayig QE to infinity means the private sector is collapsing. American ambassador of Libya assassinated on anniversary of 9-11, Fast and furious, declining energy, 60 million on food stamps, real unemployment close to 12%, declining manaufacturing, skyrocketing health care costs etc. The point is that this is happening now and affecting everyone. to assume that people are not aware of this is absurd. The polling is delusional.

“...The vast, vast majority of the polls showing big Obama leads are using (forcing) a partisan mix that fits 2008, which was 6 weeks after Lehman and very likely an aberration. If you used 2010’s partisan mix, you’d see a huge Romney lead...”

Let me just say that I think it is WONDERFUL to have a site like unskewedpolls.com It is WONDERFUL that we are not just sitting back and letting the lame-stream media get away with lie after lie when it comes to their crap polling. The lame-streams were counting on us believing the lies and giving up. Now every time they publish a poll, the party break-down internals are exposed.

Regarding 2012 turnout levels: am I the only one that thinks turnout for Republicans is going to be even MORE than the 2010 levels?? I was mad as hell in 2010 about everything that got shoved through Congress and us being helpless to stop it because of our numbers. What I felt in 2010 was NOTHING compared to the disgust and rage I feel towards this regime today. My intensity level to get to the polling booth is ten times more charged up than it was in 2010.