Except that has to do with voter turnout and enthusiasm. McCain didn’t get the turnout and Obama did. People were assuming a big fear of Obama vote that did not happen.
This time around their is a huge voter enthusiasm to vote AGAINST OBama...even if Romney isn’t exciting..because he is a known quantity. Obama isn’t firing up his base as much as 2008.
A lot of the polls are leaning toward a 2008 model, rather than a 2010 model...which would be a Romney blowout win. Obama will get better turnout than 2010 though, because he is on the ticket.
But, it won’t be 2008.
That alone puts many polls in question.
2008 was a lousy year. not only did you have “hope and change”, you had everybody depressed by the lousy economic news, which they mostly blamed on the “party in power”, which they mistakenly were told again and again were republicans, even though the democrats controlled congress.
And it was clear by election night that the race was over, which further depressed republican turnout.
In Virginia, we don’t register by party. But you can at least see who people vote for when they show up at the polls. In 2008, people voting were voting democrat, seen in the congressional races as well as presidential.
By 2009, the republicans were back voting. The republicans beat the democrats by about 56% to 40%. And again in 2010, republicans beat democrats by about 56% to 40%.
Now, could I believe we’d retreat? Maybe, but republicans in this state are pretty popular. But I don’t see how democrats win the turnout race this time around. People just aren’t that thrilled about Obama, and frankly, there are neighboring states that have real challenges so the democrats can’t send their operatives from Pennsylvania and North Carolina into Virginia this year.