Er, no.
I have explained this to people here a hundred times and apparently no one is listening so I'll try it one more time.
Working in GOP county HQ in 2004 and 2008 we were told EXACTLY the same thing: "If we get out our base, we will win. That's all there is to it."
That was absolutely true in 2004. Do you know why? Because REPUBLICANS VOTED FOR THE REPUBLICAN.
In 2008, we had the same formula: If we get out Rs, we win. So all the polls said that McCain was losing, but all the internals said the Rs were turning out.
Who was right? BOTH. The Rs turned out and 25-30% voted for Obama.
Now, if you really, really think that 25-30% of Republicans will vote for Obama this time around and that no Dems will vote for Romney, feel free to be depressed.
But I happen to think that we are back to 2004: that if the Rs turn out, we win huge, because a LOT of indies (a majority) will vote for Romney and Republicans will turn out in slightly higher % than Dems.
I continue to think that Romney has a real, unadjusted/unjimmied lead of 2-4 points nationally about about 300-310 EVS. But you can call me crazy. . . just as they did here on FR in 2004 when the "exit polls" said at 4:00 that Kerry had won and I was screaming to everyone that our internal poll flushing showed Bush had already won.
Good post, LS... thanks!
Who was right? BOTH. The Rs turned out and 25-30% voted for Obama.
I believe Churchill said that “Democracy is like a raft. It won’t sink, but your feet are always wet.”It feels like we’re in up to our knees now, tho . . .