Posted on 09/19/2012 7:36:33 AM PDT by ScottinVA
For several months now I've had a theory like yours, although on a smaller scale. I think when Obama's team knows it's over, they'll begin to quietly whisper of "possible unrest". It'll make it's way into the lib media, too. I'd guess that by three weeks out from election day, both sides will have seen all the internal polling and know what's coming. If and when those whispers of unrest pop up, we'll know we're headed to victory.
Woot!
I believe it. Here in MA, Obama stickers are down 90% from ‘08. No enthusiasm, except in the 5 or 6 moonbattiest precincts.
He’s in Milwaukee this Saturday at Summerfest grounds.
Free to attend but you have to hit a Democrat election office for tickets...my bet is they’ll be handing out tickets on the street that morning.
Rallying his base here in Milwaukee instead of traveling into a swing area of WI.
It’s going to come down to the debates, I think a lot of people are still “wait and see” about Mitt. An impressive debate performance by Mitt will sway many people.
“And Obama may have fired his best shot early with the Mother Jones hit tape”
Its a new shot every week.
Romney murdered a woman
Romney paid no taxes
Romney hates women
Romney got no convention bounce
None of the shots are ‘sticking;, though....so expect more to come.
Early forecasts call for 55 and raining Saturday :)
-— How can Øbama be up 30 in MA ——
NO way. Ten, max. 5 max by November.
In 2004, I was able to predict Bush's win not with polls but by looking at where the candidates were spending their time in October. Kerry was spending all his time trying not to lose states that had gone blue in 2000. I was so certain that when I heard the "Kerry landslide" exit polls in mid-afternoon, I gave them the same credence I would give a report that Abe Vigoda won the gold medal in the Decathalon.
Obama’s “October Surprise” could be a call to legalize marijuana. :(
Same here in NW IL. Not seeing Obama stickers (and the few vehicles that have them have several) or Obama T-Shirts, plus I've seen one Obama sign, which was from '08 and was in a yard with not a single sign from any Dem running in the area.
True, Illinois isn't a battleground, but if I know Romney's going to lose here and I'm getting a Romney button, Romney stickers and a Romney button nonetheless, why aren't the Obama people doing the same?
How long until the MSM is whining about Romney being “Teflon?”
Doing my own Rasmussen swing state tally with opinions:
Safe Obama: 201
Safe Romney: 181
Need to win: 270
Colorado (9 EV) R: 47 O:45 (9/18 LV)
Florida (29 EV) O: 48 R: 46 (9/13 LV) post DNC bounce?
Iowa (6 EV) R: 46 O:44 (8/10 LV) needs newer poll
Michigan (16 EV) O: 48 R: 42 (7/23 LV) needs newer poll
Missouri (10 EV) R: 48 O:45 (9/13 LV)
Nevada (6 EV) O: 50 R: 45 (7/24 LV) needs newer poll
New Hampshire (4 EV) R: 48 O: 45 (9/19 LV)
North Carolina (15 EV) R: 51 O: 45 (9/14 LV)
Ohio (18 EV) O: 47 R: 46 (9/13 LV) post DNC bounce?
Pennsylvania (20 EV) O: 48 R: 44 (7/20 LV) needs newer poll
Virginia (13 EV) O: 49 R: 48 (9/14 LV) post DNC bounce?
Wisconsin (10 EV) R: 48 O: 47 (8/16 LV) needs newer poll
If you tabulate these at face value, Obama adds 102 and wins with 303 while Romney adds 54 to lose with 235. But three of the most critical battleground states (Florida, Ohio, Virginia) were sampled the week after the Democrat Convention when even Rasmussen showed a strong spike for Obama that might have also been reflected in these polls. The next time these three states are sampled could be quite telling. Those 60 EVs can swing the entire election to 295-243 for Romney.
Florida is the big dog and Romney needs to hit that state as hard as he did during the primaries. If the rest shake out this way, he can afford to lose Ohio or Virginia but not both as long as he wins Florida and a few other close states like Colorado and Wisconsin.
The key will be Florida, Ohio and Virginia and whether there is a shift in these states since the conventions have subsided.
That Mother Jones tape is not helping Obama. I work in Lynn, Massachusetts and even democrats at work were agreeing with the sentiment. I think it was a net positive for Romney.
He really needs to explain the root cause of this — how dems have convinced 47% that they cannot make it on their own and how he will help the 47% become self sufficient.
“None of the shots are sticking, though....so expect more to come.”
These shots stick inasmuch as the Romney lead isn’t at +10, where it should be.
People who would actually vote on that basis in a double dip recession while the Middle East burns are either:
Libertarians who wouldn’t vote for Obama under any circumstances.
Hardcore Dems who are going to show up anyway.
Potheads who will be too busy with a wake-and-bake followed by 12 hours of Modern Warfare 3 to turn out on Nov. 6.
Oh, and it would look so desperate that it would move about half a point of undecideds over to Romney. “Holy crap! How creepy is this guy?!!?”
This election doesn’t mirror 1980 exactly (the presence of Anderson prevents that) but it does mirror it so far in this: You have a President who should be ten points behind, and his opponent is “unable to close the deal.” People were scared then, they are scared now. But the day will come where they have to decide whether they are more afraid that a successful CEO will be even more incompetent than Obama, or more afraid that four more years of this guy will be even worse than the first four.
In 1980 they decided that they were very, very afraid of Jimmah having four more years at the helm. And they decided it in the last couple of weeks. this time, I think they’ll decide long before that. In fact, if you believe Rasmussen’s numbers, they’re already doing so.
And...see tagline.
There’s something to that. The suburban towns south of Manchester contain the most republicans. Many of them are conservatives who fled Massachusetts, but still work there.
“Great news. It will be interesting to see where “the chair” goes to campaign from here on out. I think you will see him more and more in blue states tht he won in 2008.”
I knew it was a good sign for us that the kenyan was spending so much time in Iowa. One trip was 3 full days in a row. He won IA by 9 points in 2008! And now he is camped out there??
ruh roh. LOL
That home is already being pimped as the 'summer White House' by NH media...road construction underway in the area to accommodate anticipated additional vehicular traffic.
If the Entertainment Industrial Complex weren't so in the tank for O' he'd be down by 10 points.
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