Posted on 09/17/2012 6:42:01 AM PDT by mrs9x
Romney attracts the vote of 47% of voters, while Obama has 45% of voters. With leaners, the race is tied at 48%.
Can we have an amen brother ?
Personally, I have found this anecdotal evidence to be pretty important. Obviously it is not “scientific” but it tells something, doesn’t it?
And of course it is different at a presidential level....
But even so: I have personally “called” many a State House election with my signage/energy observations. Yes yes yes we all “know” that “no one is influenced by a yard sign” - and especially by those signs that are not earned, ie, they are in public rights of way and so on. Bandit signs.
No one is influenced by them....
But...if that is the case, then why is it that the person with the most signs out often wins?
I think it is for two reasons. First, people ARE influenced by signage and other tangible/observable factors. But it might be so subtle that it won’t register in polls. They are sort of hypnotized into voting for JOnes, after they see a thousand Jones signs. And it works consciously too, as the beloved independent voter wants to vote for the winner. Second, the presence at rallies, in parades, with signage, bumper stickers, showing up, ie,ALL the stuff you have PERSONALLY observed in Northern Virginia...all of that reflects a level of commitment and intensity that somehow mysteriously shows up on election day.
I think all of this is especially noteworthy if you live in areas where obama did so well in 2008.
And in that regard, your anecdotal evidence is entirely consistent with what other swing staters are reporting.
So...in summary...while we can’t read in TOO MUCH to what you have observed, we ought not to read TOO LITTLE into it, either.
That evidence, together with the fact that Romney is only down 1 in VA in Rasmussen today suggests to me that Romney will carry VA.
And OH.
And Florida....and if that happens, it’s all over for obama.
(Dear God, by your grace and mercy, may it be so).
“If he doesn’t, then, he will lose narrowly - by only a point or two in each of these swing state”
I agree. If Obama wins, it will be by a very slim margin...and defy all historical models correlating unemployment and elections.
The polls that show him 5,6, 7 points ahead are just trash. He won by 7.2% last time...and hopium is dead.
The numbers are meaningless.
What matters are the numbers from Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.
Where are they?
I mean they meant something for Al Gore right?”
I agree with the general thrust of your post in its entirety.
But...the national polls DID mean something for Al Gore. He almost won. They also meant something for John Kerry...and he almost won, as only Ohio saved the day.
Then, in 06 Ohio fell to the D’s, making it impossible for a Republican to in in 2008. Then obama’s messianic campaign and of course he wins...but only roughly 53 to 47. Against McCain of all people.
Then 2010, and ...fast forward here we are.
You are right that obama could lose.
But...we should be scared of the honest national polling numbers, and they show a tight race, ie, within two or three, right now.
(I am hopeful that late October it breaks to a five point Romney lead...then we can cruise into election day...confident and happy...and just savor the game day).
See post #7. I took those numbers out of the Rasmussen story....
Obama will NOT win VA this time.
Which means FR is show prep for "The Blaze" as their a number of FR'ers who are taking the data and re-massaging it and giving us the REAL numbers ( Thank you "lowtksh" ! ) I am not sure how to do it, but it is the percent x percent thing, but kudos to them, they have been on it.
Someone needs to share this with Laura Ingraham. She just looks at one poll that has Obama ahead and doesn’t even bother to look how oversampled Dems were
Someone needs to share this with Laura Ingraham. She just looks at one poll that has Obama ahead and doesn’t even bother to look how oversampled Dems were
You are great!
Some day, let’s go have a beer...
What a great report...
Being in VA and having lived in No VA, your area has always scared the crap out of me...it tends to swing the VA outcome, unfortunately.
I keep reminding my self that McDonnell won by 8% which included No VA going his way...
Fingers crossed.
But Ohio has Kasich in the Gov’s house and he is kicking butt, from what I hear...
That may go a long way to helping Mitts in OH.
Hoping...
-— But even so: I have personally “called” many a State House election with my signage/energy observations. -—
I believe it since I find signs and stickers to be a bellweather too. They both shape the vote and reflect the vote.
I created a “post your bumper sticker observations here” thread last week. EVERYWHERE, even in blue states, Odumbo stickers are down 90%.
If 93% of Dems vote for Obama, and 99% of Republicans vote for Romney, and if D vote is off by 5% (a conservative estimate using the bumper sticker barometer), a landslide is taking shape.
I dont know that Romney is clobbering Obama in those 10 states, he could do OK there in the end as turnout in 2012 will be much less predictable than it was in 2008 and 2012. Low Dem leaning turnout is Romney's best hope.
It is pretty obvious that Romney+CO dont think they are 'clobbering' Obama. If they did they would have demanded at least one debate moderator who is not a Democrat. You can also tell by which side changes their strategy the most.
Back to my original point : these ‘national’ polls are pretty meaningless, just report the states that will decide and that is NOT my state.
He won by 19% overall and he won Fairfax county by 4%. The bloom was off Obotulism’s rose only 4 months after assuming office. Most Virginians absolutely hate him and those who support him.
Yes, that’s right. Just like the GOP had no real chance for Ohio as both evidenced by and strengthened by gay Strickland being governor in 2008, now, it is reversed.
Ohio “should” go GOP this time. And with it, the country.
Never a done deal, but that should be the hope and expectation.
correction : “..it was in 2008 and 2010”
The racist voters who gave the state to Bonzo in 2008 were hardly inspired to get out and vote for.... Creigh Deeds. Nor do they give a damn about state legislative elections. But they will be out in force, voting as often as possible in 2012 for Bonzo and Kaine in Virginia.
We hear 'anecdotal' crap about enthusiasm among Bonzo voters being down from 2008, and that may well be the case, but where is the enthusiasm for Milquetoast Mitt? If he'd give us some reason for enthusiasm, that would be nice.
Yes, he picked a good VP candidate (so did McCain) as a sop to conservatives, but that's where it stops.
For every so-called 'broken glass' or 'ABO' voter on the right, there's an equivalent on the left, plus Massive Democrat Vote Fraud, PLUS the non-stop media adulation for Bonzo and they are not about to let America's first melanin-enhanced President get UNelected.
Forget about Romney’s numbers, Obama’s numbers are the only thing that means anything. He has consistently been between 44 and 47% in the Rasmussen poll. Those are terrible numbers for an incumbent with a media propaganda machine behind him that would make Joseph Goebbels proud.
If the final poll for Rasmussen is something like 48% Romney/47% Obama, then Romney wins big, regardless of what the state polls say.
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