[GR_Jr.]

I don’t think 0bama is up big, but I do think if the election were today he’d win narrowly in the popular vote, but would kill Romney in the Electoral College. I only see Romney picking up NC and IN from 2008. I think he still has time to take back FL and VA, but I’m not feeling good about his chances anywhere else at this point.

[des]

New Mexico? Oh, Susanna...

[LS]

.?? Romney has already priced up NC, IN, is (according to some polls) tied or ahead in OH, Fl, CO, and VA, and is tied or within MOE in IA, MI, and WI.

By my calculations that's a GOP blowout.

But when you adjust for real world D/R splits, this isn't going to be close.