In 1988 Dukakis was up by 17 in mid September and Carter was ahead of Reagan up to the last week.
The MSM meme is to trumpet these skewered polls to engender a malaise in republican voters. This election cycle is the one where this tactic will least work. I live an Massachusetts and know the chances of Romney getting this states electoral votes are slim but they will have to encircle the voting precinct with flowing lava to deter me this year.
I also would not be surprised if Massachusetts went for Romney.
Republicans traditionally are better at voter turnout: both getting to the polls themselves and getting others to the polls.
None of the predictions I've read is based on a "voter apathy" model. I don't know how many people out there are really fired up to get out and vote, or if they really don't care and will stay home and watch the TV for the results.
The 2008 election was "historic." Now that that particular bit of gum has been chewed up and lost its flavor, quite possibly it will be stuck under the seat. Motivated people sick of BO will get out there. People who regret having voted for him will stay home or vote for Romney (or someone else).