Not to drop a fly in the ointment, but how do we actually KNOW that an 8% lean toward Democrats is not accurate?
Yes lots of folks express dissatisfaction with Obama, but not many of them are exactly enthralled with Romney. And unfortunately, I have come across lots of self-professed conservatives that would rather have the US become a Stalinist State than see Mitt Romney in the White House.
Dem turnout will be down, but it’s possible that GOP stay-homes will match Obama’s. And give him 4 more years.
The Romney Rally in the stock market is the real poll to watch. The liberal talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg cannot explain why the market is going up in the face of bad news — and the answer is simple: the global stock market is betting that Romney will win and that the economy will improve. Also, the market is betting that capital gains taxes will remain at 15% and not move up.
Remember, the market crash of 2008 occurred when Obama went ahead of McCain in the polls and then widened his lead. Poof. The market realized that Keynesian economics was about to run wild — and it did.
Forget Intrade and watch the S&P 500.
In the last two important elections, (Wisconsin recall and 2010 Congressional elections) the GOP turnout equaled or exceeded that of the Democrats. I don’t know why people think the momentum has reversed.
I do think minority voters will turnout for Obama in the same high percentage as they did in 2008 (13% for blacks, I believe). On the other hand, I don’t think the twenty-somethings will be out like they did four years ago.
It’s up to us. If we go out and vote, and get our conservative friends to vote, we can win this thing.
The answer to your question is easy: party ID and participation rates in 2009, 2010,and 2011 much different than in 08.
That is the statement of purposeful self-delusion.
What you most likely have come across is a bunch of conservatives who believe Romney is a greater threat, and shorter path, to socialism than Obama.
Well we don't but ...
That was the spread in 2008. In 2010 the spread was no more that a point one way or the other and we smoked the Dems.
So it is hard to believe that the Dems can repeat their 2008 performance against a very pumped up GOP/Conservative/Tea party base in 2012. I don't think they can. The only ones who do just happen to run the Dem biased Polling companies.
The problem is you imagine that you can win an election by sitting on your thumbs ~ and insulting the very people whose votes you need.
It just doesn't work like that!
Well Rasmussen polls for it and professional political analysis and campaign strategists study voter registration numbers religiously
There is no data anywhere that validates this assumption of massive Democrat turnout superiority. The data varys both state by state and pollster to pollster but currently it suggest either a slight lead for Dems, a dead even heat or a slight lead for Repbs. Obama did not even do 8% better then McCain in 2008 so it is an absurd number
Anyone really think Obama is going to do better in 2012 then he did in 2008?
Here is a pretty good measurement of party strength by state. You might want to consult this to decide if a state poll is reasonable
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
http://www.gallup.com/poll/156194/Democratic-Voting-Enthusiasm-Down-Sharply-2004-2008.aspx
As long as enthusiasm remains higher or is even with the Dems, the GOP and Romney are in good shape to win.