There's your difference ~ has nothing to do with oversampling of Democrats.
Here's the Republican problem ~ we are a minority party about barely a third of the electorate. We can win when our BASE is motivated to go out and vote in large numbers, and when the Democrat BASE is not motivated to do anything but sit around smoking cigarettes and drinking beer.
This is exactly why I cannot understand the GOP-e ~ every action they take looks like they have no idea how to win an election and it's pretty obvious they are doing a lot of magical thinking about it.
We still have to campaign ~ and we still need a major voter registration operation (Republicans have a higher velocity of relocation than Democrats so this turns out to be more important for us than them), and we need some serious 'get out the vote' operations planned so that our people actually vote!
These things do not appear to be part of the campaign.
Right. That’s why, when you use real 2010 splits, Romney is doing well. By even unskewed data, he’s turning out a higher % of Rs than Zero is of Ds. Oh, and between the big voter roll purges and some impressive shifts in party ID since 2008, this simply is not the same electorate.