Based on the breakdown of 42% Democratic/32% GOP/26% Indie (GOP -10) you end up with the following based upon historical turnout in Ohio according to CNN/Wiki over the past three election cycles:
2010: 37 (GOP), 36 (DEM), 27 (IND/OTHER) (GOP +1)
2008: 31 (GOP), 39 (DEM), 30 (IND/OTHER) (GOP -8)
2004: 40 (GOP), 35 (DEM), 25 (IND/OTHER) (GOP +5)
If you re-weight this poll just based strictly on party affiliation you get the following results based on prior races:
POLL: 47.12% Romney, 48.06% Obama
compared to:
2010: 51.98% Romney, 43.13% Obama
2008: 48.08% Romney, 46.82% Obama
2004: 53.70% Romney, 41.55% Obama
If you re-weight by party ID and apply an estimate that the “Other” vote will split 50/50 (taking from each candidate equally) and that Undecideds break 60/40 to Romney you get these results based on historical turnout:
2010: 54.09% Romney, 44.54% Obama
2008: 50.19% Romney, 48.23% Obama
2004: 55.81% Romney, 42.96% Obama
Does someone have a link to the party ID of this poll? I can’t find it at the link - http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/OH12.html.
If it is indeed a DEM +10 poll this, like the other polls recently shows a lead even using the 2008 turnout results.