Polls are using the 2008 models. Things have moved drastically to Rs since 2008 - hence 2010 blowout.
Here's how Gallup has the states heading into 2012... Notice Ohio at D+ 1.3 (not +10).
I plugged in you 1.3% advantage to Dems, left everything the same and multiplied out the percentages. Now granted that leaves some 8.7% unaccounted for, and you would have a 47% Romney vs. a 31.2% Obama victory. Tell me where my math is wrong...
That is a blowout folks.....