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(PS: I wasn’t being snarky with the Colonel comment... I actually wonder if you have some command exp.!)

No that was my brother, and he was Navy. But I have spent most of my life listening to sea stories, both from him and my dad, reading military history, and generally listening to him predict military events a couple of weeks before they happened just by looking at unclassified stuff.

Carriers and Air Force fighter squadrons are the glamor units. Unfortunately that also means they get used for saber rattling. Watch the deployments of anphib ships, replenishment oilers and especially the ammo ships. When those move pull out your moon/tide chart.

It the build up to Gulf 1 the US launched the largest airlift since Berlin. The first RO/RO ship into port carried more cargo than the entire airlift. Desert Shield couldn't become Desert Storm until those big slow sea lift ships tied up.

You can defend a position with limited logistical support. You can raid with special forces with almost none. But to put large bodies of men and machines in motion you have to have a lot of gear moving first. An M1A2 needs to be refueled every four hours under combat conditions. So for every tank you ship you need to ship a bunch of fuel trucks. In the middle east that means lots of for MRAPs convoy escort as well. Just getting all that gear from the Continental US and depots in Iraq to the Med without using the Suez is going to take more than the 48 hours we have until the moon and tide is right.

If this is still going on next month, all bets are off.