so, the pollsters think they are as good at determing who is and is not a likely voter, as Bernanke and his financial gurus are at guiding the economy, or as bank regulators were at predicting the 2008 financial crisis
the fact is in any “prediction” the more complex your formula is the more prone it is to be incorrect
My concern is that so many look at “likely voters” as the methodology in a poll, and then they panic.
With so many definitions of likely voters, it really is a secret sauce that can be manipulated just like anything else.
The bottom line is that they can play games with the numbers and “likely voters” isn’t as definitive as some are making it out to be.
Rasmussen’s likely are not the same as Washington Post’s likely.