A few—BOR never lets him get too wonkish. He said that the older (meaning pre ‘08 results) 11% “standby” of how blacks, Latinos, youth would vote was being replaced by a 13% standby (based on ‘08 results), and that that assumption was flat-out false because that many minority voters could not be relied on to vote again for Obama this go-around. The “standby” (I think) I’m talking about is what pollsters substitute for pollees they can’t reach, a condition far more extensive now than in previous years, thanks to caller-ID, etc. It’s not just an oversampling of rats; it’s the metrics they use to calculate what the response SHOULD be if folks were actually responding to the pollsters.
Thanks