This is my take on these nine states:
Colorado- Obama led, but now it’s too close to call. A big margin in the Colorado Springs area is essential, while Romney should improve on McCain’s performance in the western part of the state. The Denver suburbs will be key.
Florida- Obama just barely won this last time, but polls are all over the map this year. Given Republican strength in most elections and the housing crisis, Obama shouldn’t win this, but anything is possible.
Iowa- Obama benefits from the economy doing fairly well there and his support for tax credits for wind power. However, he’s unpopular in the western part of the state and there is universal concern over the record-breaking debt. Could go either way, Paul Ryan may be a plus here.
Nevada- Obama won pretty big here last time and still leads, but his margin has shrunk to the vanishing point. There is a large Mormon population in the northeaster part of the state and turnout there may break records. Obama will sweep Las Vegas like he did last time. The Reno-Sparks-Carson City area will likely hold the key.
New Hampshire- Obama still leads and benefits from a liberal media market, but the margin has shrunk and Romney does have a following there. Republicans point out that Democrats suffered overwhelming defeat there in 2010.
North Carolina- Obama has fallen behind in most polls, though it’s still close. The McCain campaign was caught completely caught off guard, where record turnout among African-Americans and college students gave Obama a very narrow victory. Republicans won’t be caught napping this time.
Ohio- Ground zero, no state matters more. Obama has spent mountains of money there and seems to be pulling ahead. The economy is doing slightly better, that ssems to be more John Kasich’s doing than Obama’s, but Obama seems to be benefitting. Republicans haven’t really returned fire yet, but they will.
Virginia- Obama won by a larger-than-expected margin in 2008 and government workers are a growing portion of the electorate. Republicans need to win maximum margins in rural Virginia while cutting Obama’s margins in the outer D.C. suburbs. Most polls there show the candidates tied.
Wisconsin- Thanks largely to Paul Ryan’s local popularity, Romney has pulled even in a state that hasn’t voted Republican for President since 1984. Even Tammy Baldwin, the radical nominee for U.S. Senate, has declined to attack Ryan. Democrats think that the novelty of a local boy on the ticket will fade in the coming weeks. Watch political spending on state stations closely.
My predictions:
Colorado- Obama win. Too many Californiacs.
Florida- R2 win.
Iowa- R2 win.
Nevada- R2 win.
New Hampshire- R2 win.
North Carolina- R2 win.
Ohio- R2 win.
Virginia- R2 win.
Wisconsin- R2 win.
Throw in ME-02 for R2.
Not to thread highjack, but for the sportsfans in “the gang”: What do you think about Roger Clemens coming back to pitch this year, at 50 y/o for the Astros? Will Selig allow this to happen? Will Clemens fall on his face or do reasonably well?
p.s. Unkus self deleted a couple months back, so there’s no need to ping him anymore.