As someone who spends a lot of time in the Old Dominion, I can tell you that anger against Obama is building in the state. Sequestration will mean the immediate loss of 200,000 defense jobs, mostly in Hampton Roads and the DC suburbs. The military vote will be out in force in places like Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Suffolk, the Tidewater Peninusla and even parts of Norfolk and Portsmouth. Even with a large minority population in those two latter cities (along with Newport News and Hampton), I don’t see Obama carrying Hampton Roads again.
Meanwhile, Zero’s war on coal will cost him heavily in southwest Virginia, and other rural parts of the state are solidly red. So, Obama’s hopes rest with Richmond, any plurality he can muster in Norfolk and the DC suburbs. Obviously, there are a lot of federal works in those areas, but there are thousands of residents who work for defense contractors in the DC area. Most of them won’t be pulling the lever for Barry.
On Fox News there other day, Karl Rove said he had been talking to some experienced GOP hands in Virginia and they indicated the polls were breaking towards Romney and George Allen. This may be the first public confirmation of that trend. However, I’d feel a lot better if I could see the poll’s internals.
GravisVA [PDF]