RCP Poll: Virginia Poll: R 49%, 0 44%

On the days of September 8th and 9th, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research company, and Capitol Correspondent conducted a survey of 2,238 likely voters in the state of Virginia. The survey covered the same questions as the August survey, which comprised questions regarding the presidential election, Virginia’s senate race, the direction of the United States, and the effect of a libertarian candidate on Romney and Obama. Overall, from August to the most recent survey, Obama’s 44% to 40% lead has turned into a Romney lead of 49% to 44% in the most recent poll. Interestingly, Obama didn’t lose votes, rather Romney gained previously unsure voters or voters that previously planned on voting for a different candidate.

Two of the major problems in predicting Virginia political behavior has to do with Doug Wilder ~ in the Midwest he'd be considered pretty much a classical conservative Democrat or a less conservative Republican.

He's fairly typical of the black leadership class here, so when it comes to state affairs these guys generally go along with longer jail sentences, strong execution policy, low taxes, and fiscally sound state financial management over and beyond what the constitution requires.

Alas, the other problem also involves Democrats ~ that's the crowd in Arlington and Alexandria who are literally tied into the national Democrat party through their employment ~ politics, publishing and Congressional staffers and their friends.

Usually these guys end up working at cross purposes to the Virginia black leadership elite, and that's where Republicans can move in strong and do whatever their hearts desire. We are having such a time now. Unfortunately we have a Governor who is simply not able to take advantage of this since he has no long term goals ~ just short term stuff (Toll bridges, toll roads, etc.)

While there's a chance the black turnout in VA is going to be lower than normal, the crazoid national Democrats will probably all show up this time.

Ordinarily you could push for a higher Socon turnout to offset that, but not this time. This has happened over and over in this state. Probably why the Romney crowd has minimized their contact with the "broad masses" (as they might put it) because all they can do is PO the VA Socons more and more.

The Obama crowd seems to have come to the same conclusion as well.

The result is we have a very evenly divided electorate that can, and has, gone either way, or both ways simultaneously, and both major campaigns are afraid to come here lest they lose more votes ~

Yes, indeed. That’s what I’m seeing and hearing, too.

A liberal cannot successfully run a conservative campaign. The harder Romney tries to sound like a conservative, the more he comes across as somebody who has no real beliefs at all. He’s doing a pretty good job of concealing any real beliefs that may actually inhabit his liberal soul. He just comes across as empty, spent, invisible.

I remain hopeful that after this election, after Romney has left the political scene, those who have been dabbling in Romneyism will become reconciled with conservative values.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.