[BlatherNaut]

100% of all voters are committed to vote one way or the other in accordance with their interests as they perceive them, and those interests are family, social, economic, religious affiliation, part of the country ~

That would mean that 100% are more influenced by logic and principle than by more superficial concerns.

The American Idol type voters, the Emotional voters, and the Blue Jay Shiny Object voters are influenced by external manipulation rather than logic. They are the swing voters, and election results rest on their capricious voting behavior. They may call themselves Republican, Democrat or Independent, but what they have in common is that they are influenced by form over substance (e.g. - "Vote for the Cool Black Guy").

[muawiyah]

Not really ~ if you want to win elections you must always assume you are not going to get to the other guy and convince him to vote for you ~ rather, you must get your own people to turn out to vote for you and depend on cold, hard statistical evidence built up over a couple of centuries that they'll be there to vote ~ if you get them out to vote!

At the same time you want to run a campaign to discourage the other guy so he doesn't want to vote!

The idea that there's a mother load of swing voters easily persuaded by emotional appeals is MAGICAL THINKING.