[JCBreckenridge]

Last 5 polls going back to 1st of August, going from the earliest to the latest poll.

R+5
O+3
R+1
Even
O+1

It is the only state to exhibit this pattern - ergo it is a true tossup.

Rasmussen had Romney up 5, but that was August 1st. Things change. It wasn’t a true tossup before, but now it is.

[1035rep]

NC is not a toss up but Wisconsin sure is.