[Numbers Guy]

While I strongly agree that the poll is skewed, I wouldn’t go so far as to say Romney is up significantly. Most reasonable polls over time have shown about a 4-point Dem edge. That means that the surveys based on a 10-point Dem edge are way off, but I’m skeptical that there’s an actual 1-point GOP edge.

Furthermore, extrapolating a small sample size 54-40 Romney lead among a handful of independents is questionable.

I’m not saying this to be a fly in the ointment. As my name and start date imply, I registered and started posting to debunk some of the Gore mumbo jumbo 12 years ago in Florida. The poll is definitely skewed. I just don’t think it’s as skewed as the Examiner thinks. My read is that it’s a 1-point Obama lead, which is totally margin of error.

[rwfromkansas]

I am a bit more generous giving it a 2 point Romney lead, but I could see a slight Obama lead of maybe 1 point at best. There just is not enthusiasm for him this time, but there is for Romney in comparison.

Not huge enthusiasm yet, and I think that is what keeps him back. I think that will change over the debates. He appears to be taking them seriously, already prepping etc. He did well during the primary debates.

Certainly reason to be concerned, but nothing to freak out about yet. Too much in life to worry about everything. That said, if by mid-October we see a growing Obama lead....that will be a time to have serious concerns.

[mkjessup]

Thanks for your observations FRiend, if you have a ping list, feel free to add me to it, I value your perspective on this.

[dvwjr]

Here is how I see the political ID poll data breakdown for the CNN/ORC national poll published September 10th, 2012:

The original national CNN data, 709 Likely Voters for September 07-09, 2012:

Demographics	Republican	Democrat	Independent		Poll Numbers
Romney	96%	3%	54%	Romney	46%
Obama	2%	97%	40%	Obama	52%
Neither/Other	2%	0%	4%	Neither/Other	2%
No Opinion:	1%	0%	2%	No Opinion:	1%
	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	Total:	100.0%

CNN/ORC poll, September 7-9 2012, PDF - Page #21 of 48, (Question 1/1A).

The derived poll data presented below for the same national CNN, Likely Voters, n = 709

Rounding the below by plus or minus (0.49%) yields above published (rounded) CNN two digit poll data.

Demographics	Republican	Democrat	Independent		Poll Numbers			Adjusted Numbers
Romney	96.47%	2.51%	53.51%	Romney	45.97%	Romney		50.70%	Romney
Obama	1.51%	97.49%	40.49%	Obama	51.51%	Obama		46.80%	Obama
Neither/Other	1.51%	0.00%	3.95%	Not Sure	1.71%	Neither/Other		1.71%	Neither/Other
No Opinion:	0.51%	0.00%	2.05%	Do not know:	0.81%	No Opinion:		0.79%	No Opinion:
	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	Total:	100.0%			100.0%
				Results				New Weighting
				(Weighting)
		`
Poll Information			Republican	28.70%	Republican			35.00%
CNN			Democrat	38.96%	Democrat			35.00%
9/7-9/2012			Independent	32.35%	Independent			30.00%
MOE 3.68%
709 LV				100.0%				100.0%
page #21/48

Looks as if CNN/ORC have published a Democrat [ +10.26%] Likely Voter oversampled poll. Just for fun, at the far right of the spreadsheet data is a "what-if" the political ID breakdown was (35%R, 35%D, 30%I) - Romney on top by ~4%.

dvwjr

[Girlene]

Rasmussen has obama at 50, Romney at 45. CNN may be off, but probably not by a lot. It appears obama did get some bump after the DNC. Why? probably because we have a lot of morons in this country.