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To: Viennacon; Dilbert San Diego
Here is how I see the political ID poll data breakdown for the CNN/ORC national poll published September 10th, 2012:

The original national CNN data, 709 Likely Voters for September 07-09, 2012:

Demographics Republican Democrat Independent Poll Numbers
Romney 96% 3% 54% Romney 46%
Obama 2% 97% 40% Obama 52%
Neither/Other 2% 0% 4% Neither/Other 2%
No Opinion: 1% 0% 2% No Opinion: 1%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total: 100.0%


CNN/ORC poll, September 7-9 2012, PDF - Page #21 of 48, (Question 1/1A).


The derived poll data presented below for the same national CNN, Likely Voters, n = 709

Rounding the below by plus or minus (0.49%) yields above published (rounded) CNN two digit poll data.


Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers     Adjusted Numbers  
Romney 96.47% 2.51% 53.51% Romney 45.97% Romney   50.70% Romney
Obama 1.51% 97.49% 40.49% Obama 51.51% Obama   46.80% Obama
Neither/Other 1.51% 0.00% 3.95% Not Sure 1.71% Neither/Other   1.71% Neither/Other
No Opinion: 0.51% 0.00% 2.05% Do not know: 0.81% No Opinion:   0.79% No Opinion:
  100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total: 100.0%     100.0%  
                   
                   
        Results       New Weighting  
        (Weighting)          
    `              
Poll Information     Republican 28.70% Republican     35.00%  
CNN     Democrat 38.96% Democrat     35.00%  
9/7-9/2012     Independent 32.35% Independent     30.00%  
MOE 3.68%                  
709 LV       100.0%       100.0%  
page #21/48                  
                   
                   



Looks as if CNN/ORC have published a Democrat [ +10.26%] Likely Voter oversampled poll. Just for fun, at the far right of the spreadsheet data is a "what-if" the political ID breakdown was (35%R, 35%D, 30%I) - Romney on top by ~4%.


dvwjr valign= width= align= width= size=24 /fontTahoma/tdright/font2bottomnbsp; align= height=bottom

66 posted on 09/10/2012 7:42:47 PM PDT by dvwjr
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To: dvwjr

What happens to the numbers if you apply the 2010 voting trends to the model?


67 posted on 09/10/2012 7:47:46 PM PDT by BOBWADE (RINOs suck)
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