Here is how I see the political ID poll data breakdown for the CNN/ORC national poll published September 10th, 2012:
The original national CNN data, 709 Likely Voters for September 07-09, 2012:
| Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
| Romney |
96% |
3% |
54% |
Romney |
46% |
| Obama |
2% |
97% |
40% |
Obama |
52% |
| Neither/Other |
2% |
0% |
4% |
Neither/Other |
2% |
| No Opinion: |
1% |
0% |
2% |
No Opinion: |
1% |
|
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
Total: |
100.0% |
CNN/ORC poll, September 7-9 2012, PDF - Page #21 of 48, (Question 1/1A).
The derived poll data presented below for the same national CNN, Likely Voters, n = 709
Rounding the below by plus or minus (0.49%) yields above published (rounded) CNN two digit poll data.
| Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
|
Poll Numbers |
|
|
Adjusted Numbers |
|
| Romney |
96.47% |
2.51% |
53.51% |
Romney |
45.97% |
Romney |
|
50.70% |
Romney |
| Obama |
1.51% |
97.49% |
40.49% |
Obama |
51.51% |
Obama |
|
46.80% |
Obama |
| Neither/Other |
1.51% |
0.00% |
3.95% |
Not Sure |
1.71% |
Neither/Other |
|
1.71% |
Neither/Other |
| No Opinion: |
0.51% |
0.00% |
2.05% |
Do not know: |
0.81% |
No Opinion: |
|
0.79% |
No Opinion: |
| |
100.0% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
Total: |
100.0% |
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100.0% |
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Results |
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New Weighting |
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` |
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| Poll Information |
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Republican |
28.70% |
Republican |
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35.00% |
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| CNN |
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Democrat |
38.96% |
Democrat |
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35.00% |
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| 9/7-9/2012 |
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Independent |
32.35% |
Independent |
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30.00% |
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| MOE 3.68% |
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| 709 LV |
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100.0% |
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100.0% |
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| page #21/48 |
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Looks as if CNN/ORC have published a Democrat [ +10.26%] Likely Voter oversampled poll. Just for fun, at the far right of the spreadsheet data is a "what-if" the political ID breakdown was (35%R, 35%D, 30%I) - Romney on top by ~4%.
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